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Dan · Joined: Dec 31, 1969 Posts: 212 Location: USA

I had heard some people say the field pressure was 100k psi, but they gave no reasons. Below I explain why they are right, which means we have a very big problem: the well is eating its way to the Gulf floor very rapidly. Some predictions and must dos below.

In a hydraulic system the oil tank outlet psi pressure times area of this pipe outlet in square inches, equals total force exiting pipe even though its exit area is different from intake area.

equation: Total Force(F) = field or hydraulic oil tank pressure in psi(P) x area in square inches of pipe intake(In"^). F = PIn"^. Since 'F in' must = 'F out"; outlet psi is a function of outlet area in square inches.

e.g. 100 psi tank(field) pressure x 10"^ = 1000 psi of force entering pipe outlet, so with a 20"^ exit end, then exit psi = 50 psi x 20 = 1000 psi force out = 1000 psi force into pipe.

But we must add weight of oil in well bore plus 2300 psi water pressure at well outlet to measured ep and e"^ to get actual oil field pressure.

Assuming the expected 9000 psi x 254"^ outlet(18" ID) of well = 2,286,000lbs of exit force. Since the 7" ID has only 35.25"^ at intake end of well, then dividing 35.25"^ into 2,286,000lbs = 64,800 intake pressure.

But there is more, the weight of the oil in well bore, at least a million lbs. 35.25"^ divided into 1,000,000 lbs of oil in well bore = an additional 31k psi to lift weight of oil in well.

Friction in well bore would require more field pressure to lift oil in well bore.

1,000,000 lbs is a low estimate, BP knows precisely the well volume.

Conclusions

We are at 100k field pressure with a 9k expected outlet pressure. The present measured 6900 psi reduces that to 85,000 psi. That implies a rapid drop in field pressure or a leak.

Given a gradually rising pressure; we must have a grind-up and a leak.

Predictions

1. The rising grind-up intake well end will pass first relief well end shortly, if it has not already done so.
Please listen for it coming up.

2. The slow drop in rate of pressure increase means 'leak' radius is expanding and a bigger factor, the leak flow is eroding the rock and sediment as it escapes through to sea floor; thus reducing measured grind-up rate. The actual grind-up rate is probably increasing, especially when it hits any softer rock.

3. Without the first relief well to divert oil flow, there is not enough well volume to cement this well, and the grind-up is reducing well volume more as we speak. Since there is 65k x 35.25 = 2,291,250 lbs of spare Force at intake to lift added cement up the well; and the heaviest cement only weighs twice as much as oil, then oil in bore must weigh more than 2,291,250 lbs. It does not. Can we shut off cap when cement reaches it?

4. But we have a leak big enough to swallow all the cement we can pump, so cement can not reach cap.

5. We will get a real hurricane when we least want one.

Conclusions

1. We will not have very long once grind-up passes first relief well until it passes 2nd relief well.

2. We must try to blow the well shut before the grind-up goes past effective bomb radius. Blowing closed a wide rock only well bore below the grind-up level is less likely to succeed. Should it reach the Gulf sea floor, it will wind up killing most of us.

To Do

1. 2 small nukes about 50'-100' off well simultaneously, with some vertical distance between them. The relief wells are ideal for this purpose.

Predictions speak. Please let me know once you confirm the grind-up. Seeing it means we have a bigger problem to face after we fix the well.

Dan · Joined: Dec 31, 1969 Posts: 212 Location: USA

No cement job can work, especially with a leak.